With the NBA All Star Game in the rear view and the playoffs approaching, it’s time for me to make my award predictions.
MVP – Giannis Antetokounmpo
After setting the NBA on fire last season, the reigning MVP has somehow managed to improve. Giannis is averaging 30 points and 13.5 rebounds which are both career highs. He is even shooting 32 percent on 5 threes a game, which used to be his only weakness. Giannis leads the league in PER, Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares per 48, and VORP. In fact, Giannis currently has the highest PER of all time at 32.64 which is .82 higher than the second highest season held by Wilt Chamberlain. This gap between 1 and 2 is so big that another drop of .82 brings you down to only the 13th best season in terms of PER. Antetokounmpo is also one of the best defenders in the league. His Defensive Rating and Defensive Win Shares top the league, and his defensive plus minus is second. The Bucks own the best record in the league thanks to this man. (maybe I should say freak, he really shouldn’t be considered a man)
ROTY – Ja Morant
Is this really a question? With his electric speed and dazzling vision, Ja has been one of, if not the most exciting player in the league thus far. He is second amongst rookies in scoring (17.6 ppg, Zion Williamson) and is nearly doubling the next best rookie in assists (7.5 apg). Most importantly, Ja has led the Grizzlies to massively outperform anyone’s expectations. ESPN’s preseason predictions had the Grizzlies finishing at the bottom of the West with a record of 27-55. Memphis has already surpassed that win total by the All-Star Break, and if the playoffs started today, they would be the 8th seed. Yes, Zion might be the better player and have a better career, but even if he plays every game from here on out, he will have played in less than half the season. Ja has made a much bigger impact this season and is a shoe in to win the award.
DPOY – Rudy Gobert
Like Giannis, Gobert should win back to back awards in their respective categories. Among qualified players, Gobert is 1st in 538’s RAPTOR Defensive War, and it’s not particularly close. Gobert’s WAR is 7. Second place is Brook Lopez with 4.3. Per usual, The Steifel Tower is near the top of the leaderboards in rebounds, blocks, defensive win shares, defensive rating, and defensive box plus minus. Perhaps voter fatigue will hurt his case, but Gobert should rack up his third straight defensive player of the year award.
MIP – Brandon Ingram
This pick isn’t as obvious as Giannis or Ja, but it’s still pretty clear. Ingram had showed flashes of superstar potential with the Lakers, but now that he holds the keys to his team’s offense, Ingram has absolutely flourished. A first time all-star, Brandon Ingram is enjoying career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goal percentage. Regarding advanced metrics, Ingram’s VORP, offensive rating, win shares per 48, and box plus minus are all career highs as well. Ingram finally looks like the player everyone thought he could be when he was drafted with the second pick in 2017. If he keeps up this progression, Ingram will soon be one of the biggest offensive threats in the league. Pelican’s may not be very good this year, but imagine where they would be without Ingram.
COY – Nick Nurse
The Raptors weren’t supposed to be this good without Kawhi Leonard. Yet here they are as the second seed in the East. Nurse has lead Toronto to having the second lowest defensive efficiency in the NBA. They also have the fourth highest consistency rating according to Second Spectrum, which shows that Nurse is formulating his defensive schemes for every game. He has no shortage of defensive creativity, however. The Raptors have broken out the zone defense, box and one, and even triangle and two this season. Nurse is really the biggest defensive innovator in the modern NBA.
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