During the 2 week international break, it is time to examine the 10 games Tottenham has played under Antonio Conte. First, we will do a brief recap of the team prior to Conte’s takeover.
Conte was appointed manager on November 2, 2021, after Tottenham had played 10 games under Nuno Espirato Santo (shutter). Tottenham had 5 wins and 5 losses (15 points) in those first 10 games, “good” for 9th place in the league table. But more worrying to fans and Daniel Levy alike was the absolute dross football Tottenham played under him. In fact, Tottenham were extremely fortunate to be at 15 points.
A quick look at the numbers suggests Nuno’s deficiencies. Nuno’s Spurs had generated 10.63 xG (4th lowest in the league), and had conceded 15.98 xG (9th highest). This led to a bottom 5 xPTS of 10.84, which is absolutely ridiculous for a team gunning to be in the top 4. The excitement of watching the team on the pitch was nowhere to be found either. Nuno’s tactics (if you can call them that) were the epitome of “hoof and inshallah.” Just look at how Tottenham is situated in this photo below during the NLD.
The gap between the centerbacks and midfielders is so big that the only way Tottenham progressed the ball was through a long ball to Kane. Simply head scratching.
Now to the good part! Antonio Conte has completely transformed this side, with a record of 6-3-1 (21 points) in his 10 games. While his famed back-3 formations have solidified the defense, his tactics have also made Tottenham infinitely more potent than they were under Nuno. Once again, here’s a quick overview of the stats. In an equal number of games, Conte’s Spurs have accumulated more than double the xG they did under Nuno (22.14) and conceded almost half the xG (8.73).
Conte has achieved this through his much more rigorous tactical setup than Nuno’s. In the picture below, Winks and Ndombele both take up spaces where they can receive the ball from Sanchez. Notice how Emerson is also pointing at Ndombele, a sign that everyone is on page with Conte’s automations.
While there are some concerns over Tottenham's lack of creative midfielders, Contes automations and system makes up for this. With a non-creative midfield 3 of Højbjerg, Skipp, and Winks, Spurs generated 3.5 xG against Leicester. Conte clearly expects this to continue, considering he approved the loans of Ndombele, Lo Celso, and Gil.
With Conte leading the charge, Tottenham is 7th in the table. However, they have several games in hand, and are 4th in points per game. 538’s models have Tottenham with the highest odds to finish fourth. In fact, their estimates are probably lower than reality since their statistical evaluation of Tottenham includes the time under Nuno. If Tottenham continue progressing, Conte and Spurs might find themselves in next season’s Champions League.
Comments